RBC Survey shows increase in optimism about Canadian economy

With the arrival of the New Year comes the first in what I expect to be a series of surveys to gauge both national and regional pulse in terms of the economic outlook for 2010. The Royal Bank of Canada have today released a follow up to their November 2009 survey which displays a definitive move toward more positive expectations from those polled.

The original survey 60 days ago established a benchmark Canadian Consumer Outlook score of 100 which has improved to 108 in the follow up questioning. Those questioned exhibited an increased likelihood to make major purchases in 2010 such as a new vehicle or to book an expensive vacation. These statistics are underpinned by a display of increased confidence in job security which showed a drop from 27% to 21% amongst those that are ‘concerned about themselves or a household member losing their job’. While the number resting at 21% is still exceedingly high the significant drop of 6 points infers that conditions amongst businesses in Canada are showing increased stability.  60% stated that they anticipate the economy to improve over the coming 12 months while just 17% felt that conditions may still worsen.

We’ll continue to share results of economic indicators and polls with you to best gauge consumer confidence and economic growth for 2010. It must be said that the consensus amongst analysts is that a guarded but ultimately positive prognosis for the New Year seems to be in place. The marriage of consumer confidence with business expansion work entirely in concert and while the recovery will be built on very cautious confidence the initial indicators are that the arrival of 2010 is coinciding with marginal growth in collective expectation.

Analysis provided with assistance from reports prepared by the RBC and Reuters.